Sources and authorities
Government publications, quoted and linked. Federal reports are public information.
Crash causation research
- Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, Report to Congress on the Large Truck Crash Causation Study. Source of the study's method and its caution: the coding begins with the critical event, the critical reason for it and associated factors, and none of those variables in and of themselves should be considered the cause of the crash. Also the source of the scale figures: 967 crashes examined, weighting to an estimated 141,000 large trucks involved in fatal and injury crashes over a 33 month period, and almost 1,000 data elements collected. FMCSA.
- Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration newsroom release on the same study, headed with the statement that driver behavior causes most truck crashes. Quoted only to show that the agency's own publicity used the framing its report cautions against. FMCSA newsroom.
- Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, Bus Crash Causation Study Report to Congress, November 2009. Source of the historical figure that in each year of the preceding decade over 4,800 people were killed and over 100,000 injured in crashes involving large trucks. Quoted as history and expressly not as a current count. FMCSA.
Why this page carries no current national totals. Figures go out of date and then get quoted anyway. Earlier in the building of this site we published a figure that had been superseded four weeks before the page went live, which is the kind of error that is easy to make and hard to notice. National counts therefore live on the child pages listed above, where they can be updated as each agency publishes, and this page confines itself to explaining what those numbers are and are not.
On the tension in the causation study. We have quoted both the report's caution and the press release that ignores it. That is not an attempt to score a point against the agency: the study is careful, extensive and genuinely useful, and the caution is exactly the kind of thing a serious researcher writes. The problem is downstream, in the thousands of pages that quote the percentages without the caveat. Anyone using a figure from that study in a real dispute should read the methodology first.
What is not here. We have not summarized the four data families in numeric detail, because that belongs on the pages that carry the numbers. We have published no settlement averages, because no public crash dataset contains settlement values. And we have not analyzed any dataset ourselves; everything above describes what published sources say about their own methods.